For the 57,000 inhabitants of Greenland, the future is uncertain. Plans to buy or annex the nation by the US have triggered a standoff with Denmark (which holds sovereignty over Greenland as an autonomous territory), the EU, and NATO. The resulting trade war could result in financial losses on both sides, while troops have been dispatched in case a real war breaks out. What’s the actual likelihood that the US acquires Greenland before the year is out, though? As of writing: 20 per cent. A partial takeover nets you slightly better odds.

A few years ago, it would have been impossible to put a concrete number on the likelihood of any given outcome in a geopolitical incident like the Greenland crisis. Today, it comes courtesy of ‘prediction markets’ – online platforms that allow you to gamble on real-world events. In the last few years these platforms have seen a sharp rise in popularity, alongside a broader rise in gambling (and problem gambling) that’s especially prevalent among young people.

Billions of dollars flow through prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi each week, with some users netting hundreds of thousands from betting on... basically anything. Examples include Timothée Chalamet winning Best Actor at the Oscars, the amount of tweets by chronically online poster Elon Musk in a given week, aliens being confirmed by 2027, or whether a new Rihanna album will drop before GTA VI.

The platforms also enable more controversial trades to take place, though, on issues like: will the US or Israel strike Iran first? In a disclaimer about “Middle East markets” displayed by Polymarket, the site states that the aim is to “harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts” about important events. “That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today,” it reads. “After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realised that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.”

Whether or not you agree with this aim (admittedly, it’s hard to believe in the “wisdom of the crowd” in the big 2026) prediction markets have been mired in controversy and conspiracy theories in recent months, which only grow more relevant as they rise in popularity. 

HOW DOES A PREDICTION MARKET WORK?

Basically, users vote on yes-or-no questions, betting against each other by buying so-called “contracts” (someone who believes that the existence of aliens will be confirmed by 2027, for example, would buy contracts representing the “yes” option). Depending on the likelihood of the event taking place, the cost of a contract fluctuates, while the payout when an event actually happens is set at $1. If, for example, you spent $20 buying 100 “yes” contracts on the existence of aliens at $0.20, and aliens were confirmed before the end of the year – fingers crossed – you’d get a return of $100.

Unlike typical bookmakers, where you bet against “the house” and they set the odds accordingly, contracts work more like financial shares, with opposing users matched up to essentially bet against each other. The platform makes money via trading fees.

THEY OPERATE IN A LEGAL ‘GREY AREA’...

Without a bookmaker acting as an intermediary, some prediction markets – like Polymarket – have been able to skirt gambling regulations, operating in a legal “grey area”. Due to this, Polymarket was actually inaccessible for US users from 2022 to December 2025, until the Trump administration relaxed regulations that blocked it from operating. This isn’t too surprising, since Trump used Polymarket graphs to boast about his odds of winning the presidential election in 2024, and Donald Trump Jr is linked to both Polymarket and Kalshi as an advisor. In fact, Donald Trump has even tried to launch his own Polymarket competitor, via Truth Social.

Kalshi, which is largely used for sports betting, has faced several battles with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over the legality of betting on elections. In 2024, it won a high-profile case, essentially laying the blueprint for gamifying politics in the US. 

NOT TO MENTION THE SKETCHY ETHICS

Besides legal challenges, Kalshi has drawn criticism for aggressively marketing to younger audiences, and hosting bets on critical issues like food insecurity in Gaza. Recently, the Golden Globes also drew fire for an exclusive partnership with Polymarket, which was described as a “groundbreaking new frontier” by organisers and an “end times indicator” by less enthusiastic viewers.

Gamblers themselves have had some big issues with prediction markets in recent weeks as well. Before US military forces seized Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro at the beginning of the year and promised to “run” the country for an unspecified amount of time, users had placed millions of dollars on the US invasion of Venezuela by a certain date (most commonly January 31, 2026). However, Polymarket refused to pay out due to a lack of clarity over the term “invasion”. Angered users called the decision arbitrary and “absurd”.

FINALLY, WE GET TO THE CONSPIRACY THEORIES

Just before the “illegal” capture of Maduro, an anonymous, recently-created account bet $32,537 on four Venezuela-based contracts, netting over $436,000. This fuelled theories about insider trading on the platform. Shortly after, Democrat congressman Ritchie Torres responded via a bill that would ban government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they possess “material nonpublic information”.

The invasion of Venezuela isn’t the only issue on the receiving end of conspiracy allegations, though. Wagers on military action in Iran and Palestine have also raised suspicions about links to Israeli intelligence. On social media, some have pointed toward supposed links between prediction markets and more traditional military intelligence methods, as well as backing by influential right-wing figures like Peter Thiel.

Insider trading on war and suffering might seem bad enough, but there’s also the question of bad incentives set by prediction markets, unless they crack down. What happens, for example, when a politician or military official stands to make a massive personal profit from stoking conflict in the Middle East? What happens when presidential candidates are traded like meme stocks? Probably nothing good!