After a series of defeats and frustrations for the anti-trans movement, there’s hope that it may finally be running out of steam
For the most part, 2023 has been a terrible year for anti-LGBTQ+ politics. The Conservative Party conference, which took place in October, saw some of the most vicious and unabashed transphobic rhetoric from mainstream politicians in Britain yet, and new anti-migrant legislation has made life harder than ever for queer asylum seekers. Meanwhile, in the US, Republican states have introduced the worst and most expansive slate of anti-trans laws ever. Targeting trans adults and young people alike, some of these bills have banned or severely restricted access to healthcare; banned public performances of drag; removed the rights of trans people to change their pronouns in educational settings or to use the correct bathrooms according to their gender; and introduced a climate of intense censorship in schools and universities.
The anti-trans movement seemed to become more obsessive and frenzied than ever. Over the course of a year, they have harassed countless teachers and librarians, the organisers of a non-competitive fun run, the suicide prevention charity Samaritans, a drag queen who appeared on a BBC cookery show, and Edinburgh Zoo. While primarily driven by transphobia, these attacks became more and more indiscriminate as the year progressed, targeting pride events of any kind and the mildest expressions of solidarity with the community. Unsurprisingly, the prevalence of hateful rhetoric has been accompanied by a rise in violent crimes against LGBTQ+ people, including the tragic murders of Brianna Ghey and O’Shea Sibley.
In light of all this misery, it doesn’t seem like there’s much to celebrate as we arrive at the year’s end. But according to some expert commentators, there are promising signs that the anti-trans fever might be starting to break. This is particularly noticeable in the US, where politicians campaigning on transphobic policies have suffered a wave of defeats, starting with the midterms last year and continuing with a round of elections this November. “They were mainly state and local elections, so it's more about who your local school board candidate or your local mayor is, along with some small elections in the legislature,” Erin Reed, a journalist and expert in trans politics, tells Dazed. “Still, a lot of people were watching these elections closely, because the big anti-LGBTQ+ wave in the United States started in the school boards with an organisation called Moms for Liberty, which won some big victories back in 2021 and inspired a lot of politicians to start focusing on anti-trans stuff. But this time they lost something like 70 per cent of their races and the people who won were candidates promising to reverse a lot of what they had done.”
This wasn’t happening in liberal districts, says Reed, but key swing states like Pennsylvania and Kentucky – the kind of places which act as a bellwether for how the US will vote come the Presidential election. The governor of Kentucky, Andy Beshear, also scored a huge victory, despite his opponents running a smear campaign against him based on his support for trans rights. Elsewhere, the state of Ohio voted on a bill which would protect the right to abortion, despite Republicans pushing the (false) line that this would also protect gender-affirming care. “We are seeing a mass rejection of the anti-LGBTQ+ fever in the United States,” says Reed.
Transphobia has never been a reliable vote-winner for the Republicans, but the last two years have made this clearer than ever. “They just lost running on this issue across the nation, so are they going to start to pull back and realise that being really hardcore on this issue is going to hurt them?” says Reed. “It’s entirely possible, but things could still go in the opposite direction. A number of candidates are continuing to intensify their transphobic rhetoric and we know that the anti-trans bills have gotten more extreme year-on-year.” The tragedy of the US is that, even if the political climate were to improve right away, the damage has to a large extent already been done. “We’re going to be dealing with these laws for a very long time. Realistically, in many states they will not get reversed for a decade or two,” says Reed.
“We are seeing a mass rejection of the anti-LGBTQ+ fever in the United States” – Erin Reed
In the US, the flagging level of media coverage is further reason to believe that transphobia could be in its flop era. “This time last year, I was seeing half a dozen anti-trans stories a day and multiple fresh stories a week, usually concerning some local dispute blown up into international news, a trans person who was a criminal, or something more like an urban legend, like children identifying as cats using litter boxes at school. That’s not the case anymore, thankfully,” Evan Urquhart, journalist and the founder of trans media watchdog Assigned Media, tells Dazed.
“Why they’ve moved on is a little harder to answer,” he continues. “In the US, anti-trans politics have not been a big political winner for the Republicans, so that’s one potential reason they’d be looking for new scapegoats. There’s also the conflict in Israel and Palestine, which is of widespread interest across the ideological spectrum and has pushed everything else to the margins. However, I was seeing signs of flagging interest in anti-trans stories even before the Hamas attack on Israel, so I think there’s at least some aspect of fatigue with trans stories. The shock factor is gone, and presumably audiences aren’t clicking as much.”
In the UK, the situation is both better and worse. It’s better in the sense that the anti-trans movement has failed to score anywhere near as many political victories as their American counterparts – they’ve been fairly successful at standing in the way of progress, but they haven’t really been able to snatch any existing rights away from trans people. The situation is arguably worse, however, because the anti-trans fever isn’t really breaking here. We have a highly organised and committed anti-trans movement which, as Urquhart suggests, differs from its American equivalent because transphobia is the exclusive focus, rather than forming part of a larger campaign by the religious Right – this means that the issue is less likely be swapped for something more salient.
“It's really bad at the moment and I think it’s going to get worse, ” Steph Richards, founder of trans rights organisation Translucent, tells Dazed. “The Tories have got to call an election within the next 14 months, off the back of an appalling record of wrecking the economy and creating conditions of real Dickensian poverty, so they’re going to keep driving the culture war. Fascism is a harsh word, but I think we are seeing it rear its ugly head in the UK. We’re seeing it against disabled people, against refugees and against trans people.” On the plus side, it’s almost certain that the Tories are going to lose the next election, and while Steph has been disappointed by Labour’s recent handling of trans issues, she doesn’t believe they would be anywhere near as bad in power.
According to jane fae, a writer and the chair of Trans Media Watch, the level of anti-trans coverage in the media isn’t getting any better, but nor is it getting worse. “Over the last two years, there’s been an absolute avalanche of hostile press. In 2022, I think it topped out about 7,500 articles about trans people – which is more articles than there are people with gender recognition certificates. This year, I expect it to be about the same.”
“[There’s a] fatigue with trans stories. The shock factor is gone, and presumably audiences aren’t clicking as much” – Evan Urquhart
But there is still reason to hope that the anti-trans panic might be hitting a plateau. “Yes, support for trans people has fallen back in YouGov polls. But considering they’re churning out 7,500 articles a year, I’d say the level of support is still remarkably high,” says fae. The anti-trans movement has also failed to enact any legislation. As it stands, human rights law is mostly favourable to trans people, and the government’s ability to change this – without taking truly radical steps, like pulling out of the European Court of Human Rights – is limited. “They can rant in public, they can say things which make people feel afraid and do all sorts of nasty stuff, but the one thing they haven’t been able to do is rewrite the Equality Act so it excludes trans people from protection. If this government does get re-elected then all bets are off, but I think that’s extremely unlikely.”
Keir Starmer may be a cowardly figure who has betrayed the trans community time and time again, but he’s not going to pursue the issue with the same enthusiasm as the Tories. And while Labour aren’t likely to make anything better for trans people or the LGBTQ+ community in general, it’s reasonable to expect that they won’t make transphobia a flagship policy or commit to the arduous, complex task of eroding trans rights.
It would be premature to announce that we have reached peak transphobia, particularly at a time when far-right authoritarianism is rising around the world. But however tough things are for the LGBTQ+ community, we can take some comfort from the fact that 2023 has been a year of failure, defeat and humiliation for our opponents far more than it has been a year of victory.