Trump’s decision to launch a war against Iran has sparked one of the most severe global energy crises in decades. In retaliation for strikes by the US and Israel, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow strip through which 30 per cent of the world’s oil passes, alongside supplies like fertiliser, which are vital for the production of food. This was an obvious outcome of attacking Iran, which is why previous generations of war-mongering American politicians have never attempted it, however much they wanted to. But either the possibility didn’t occur to the Trump administration, or they failed to take it seriously. 

While we’re yet to see the full effects of this war, partly due to Trump’s ongoing manipulation of the stock market, an economic crisis of some kind is inevitable. It’s not a question of whether it will happen, but of just how bad it will be. According to some experts, we could be facing a global recession or even a depression, and the knock-on effects are hard to predict. 

The human toll of the war has already been catastrophic: Israel is ramping up its aggression against Lebanon and in many ways repeating the Gaza playbook, killing journalists and healthcare workers, displacing around a million people and planning a long-term military occupation. Thousands of civilians in Iran have been killed, including an estimated 165 school girls in a single strike, with civilian deaths reported in Israel and across the Gulf. Keeping that in mind should be first and foremost, rather than worrying about the price of fast fashion and our summer holidays. (You can find our guide on how to help those displaced in Lebanon here and Iran here.) However, it’s still worth considering the economic fallout from the US and Israel’s reckless decision to attack Iran. Below, we explain some of the ways the war will impact all of our lives. 

EVERYTHING WILL GET MORE EXPENSIVE

The energy crisis is going to make everything more expensive, because oil is used in the production and transport of just about everything. In addition to the Strait of Hormuz being closed, there’s a high possibility that the Houthis – a political and military organisation based in Yemen – will blockade the Red Sea, as it did between 2024 and 2025 in response to Israel’s genocide in Gaza, in a measure which contributed to high inflation in Europe.

We’re looking at increases in the price of everything you’d expect, such as household energy bills, which in the UK could surge by as much as £288 per year; groceries, which could rise by as much as 10 per cent; petrol, which has already spiked significantly, and clothes, with the international textile industry set to take a major hit. But some of the effects are a bit more diffuse. As a result of the crisis, mortgage lenders have already increased their rates, which isn’t just a problem if you’re a homeowner: landlords almost always pass these costs onto their tenants, so the price of rent, already at breaking point across Britain, could go even higher. 

WE COULD GET A FOUR-DAY WORK WEEK 

Many countries are struggling to access vital oil supplies from Southwest Asia and North Africa, which has led Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Pakistan to adopt a four-day workweek to save fuel and energy. Will this shift similarly occur in the UK? It’s happened here before – in the early 1970s, we adopted a three-day workweek due to severe coal shortages – but Dr Wladislaw Rivkin, Professor in Organisational Behaviour at Trinity Business School, told Fortune that he thinks it’s unlikely this time around: “I do not see this as a model for the US and UK, at least in the long term, because the current sharp rise in fuel cost is temporary”. Even though he is apprehensive of this shift, he also suggests that we shouldn’t rule it out entirely, depending on how the US’s war on Iran develops.

Whatever happens, more working from home seems likely. Earlier this week, European Commissioner for Energy and Housing Dan Jørgensen urged people in the continent to “work from home where possible, reduce highway speed limits by 10 kilometres [an hour], encourage public transport, alternate private car access... increase car sharing and adopt efficient driving practices.” He added: “The more you can do to save oil – especially diesel and jet fuel – the better off we are.” 

YOUR SUMMER HOLIDAY MIGHT GET CANCELLED

If you haven’t booked a summer holiday yet, you might want to adjust your expectations and start thinking about a staycation. The price of jet fuel has doubled in recent weeks, airlines around the world are cancelling thousands of flights, and industry experts have warned that fares are going to increase as summer approaches, with long-haul flights particularly affected. To deal with the crisis, some European leaders have been urging people to take fewer flights. On the plus side, there’s still time to convince yourself that a caravaning holiday in Wiltshire is just as fun as going to Tokyo or Mexico City.

...AND SO MIGHT MORE SPORTS GAMES AND GIGS

The sports and entertainment industry is also taking a hit. The F1 has already cancelled some of its races amid missile attacks targeting Gulf nations. Artists such as Shakira and Christina Aguilera have postponed shows in the region due to security concerns. There may also be a balloon shortage, as Qatar produces a third of the world’s helium and production and exports have halted. 

THERE COULD BE MEDICATION SHORTAGES 

As reported in the Independent today, NHS chiefs are worried that we could be “days away” from potential medication shortages. However, the government issued a statement clarifying that this isn’t happening yet. Still, pharmacists have already reported price spikes, which could be a sign of trouble to come, and antidepressants, HRT, and blood pressure drugs are among the drugs that could be affected. The shortage of helium will also impact our healthcare, as it is a key component of MRI scanners used to diagnose cancer, among other uses.