Live music events might not be able to return until autumn 2021, according to a coronavirus expert.

Dr Zeke Emanual was speaking to the New York Times Magazine this weekend as part of a roundtable of COVID-19 experts discussing when America might be able to re-open following the pandemic. Emanual, an oncologist and bioethicist at the Center for American Progress, estimated that “larger gatherings” like concerts, conferences, and sporting events, could safely resume in “fall 2021 at the earliest”.

“Restarting the economy has to be done in stages, and it does have to start with more physical distancing at a work site that allows people who are at lower risk to come back,” Emanual said. “Certain kinds of construction, or manufacturing or offices, in which you can maintain six-foot distances are more reasonable to start sooner.”

“Larger gatherings – conferences, concerts, sporting events – when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically, we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”

The summer events and festival slate has already been wiped clean this year, with gatherings like Coachella and Glastonbury having to scrap their 2020 editions until next year. It’s obviously a major bummer to think that they might not be back next year, either.

However, being clear-headed and realistic about this is important for what comes next. If the music industry is not returning to ‘normal’ any time soon, then the industry needs to reconsider how its artists are compensated if they can’t rely on touring. Likewise, governments need to be serious about why live music and clubs matter if venues – which were already under threat before coronavirus – are going to survive and pay their staff.